The Millennium Bug – Reasons not to Panic

There has been a lot of noise about the millennium bug, but little hard data. Many organisations have spent a fortune on the problem but refuse to share their findings. Governments tell their citizens not to panic while making panicky contingency plans in private. Few of the ‘experts’ in the field are willing to predict the outcome. Here I report the results of an examination of the systems used in Cambridge University. The University is a federation of somewhat over a hundred and fifty departments, institutes and colleges which between them provide a very broad sample of small-to-medium sized enterprises. While colleges provide accommodation and catering services, our medical departments are involved in treating patients, our science laboratories operate major capital equipment and our aerial photography unit conducts flight operations. The sample may thus be more informative than a random sample of similar size. The surprising discovery is that although some systems have been fixed or replaced, none of the bugs found so far would have had a serious impact on our business operations even if they had been ignored until January 2000. So the UK government anxiety about the millennium bug compliance of small-to-medium sized enterprises appears misplaced. The average small business owner, who is doing absolutely nothing about the bug, appears to be acting quite rationally. This does not mean that the millennium bug is harmless. There are still risks to the economy and to public safety, but in the UK at least they appear to be minor. This article recounts my own experiences; but when I talk to engineers who have worked with the bug elsewhere, they seem fairly typical.